![]() But such an effect would have to be gradual. It could still be a factor, as is the case for many events. After the Affordable Care Act premium hike announcement, opinion did not move for days, arguing against this as a main driver of the late swing in opinion. Shifted the time axis by 3 days, to correct for the fact that each survey also covered earlier and later dates.*.Calculated the median Clinton-Trump margin by date.For each survey, entered the Clinton-Trump margin across all dates covered by the survey sample.Made a large table with one date per column (spreadsheet here).These polls were done on multiple days, which I converted to individual dates using the following procedure: I calculated a day-by-day margin using polling data from the Huffington Post. For example, the Huffington Post does not allow a sudden shift to be seen. They tend to smear results out over time. However, it is not possible to see the shift using the averaging methods used by other aggregators. This can test between alternative explanations, which include not only the Comey letter (October 28th) but preceding events such as the announcement a hike in Affordable Care Act premiums (October 24th). My error seems to be accounted for by two events: (1) undecided Republican voters coming home, and (2) FBI Director Jim Comey’s letter to Congress about Clinton’s email.įrom opinion data alone, it is possible to estimate when a change occurred. In mid-October, I said I didn’t think Trump would clear 240 electoral votes, a statement I paid for later by eating a bug on CNN. And of course there is so much to say about the candidates themselves. ![]() Hillary Clinton’s narrow loss to Donald Trump was influenced by many causes in the home stretch: complacency driven by conventional wisdom and polls (and yes, poll aggregation), which led to the media assumption that she would win, which in turn was a likely driver of the tone of coverage. The risk to the American system of government and life has been noted by both liberals and conservatives. In addition to a hard rightward move on policy, Trump, Pence, and Company appear to be bent on uprooting many institutions. A month after Trump’s upset victory, the aftermath is still sending shocks through the United States and the world.
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